2027 Coalition movement: Danger of Atiku not contesting

 Aniekan Udofia

Two years to the 2027 general election, the political space in Nigeria has been saturated with permutations and campaigns. The ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, through its bigwigs, has been throwing endorsements of the president for a second term. The Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, said the president should be adopted as the sole candidate for presidency by all.

The two leading opposition parties in Nigeria are the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP). They seemed to be embroiled in intractable disputes. Meanwhile, the ruling APC appears as an atomistic house united by greed, maintaining the peace of a graveyard. Despite these issues, several political heavyweights from these three major political parties have come together. They are considering forming a possible coalition.

Many have questioned the feasibility of driving a successful coalition in less than two years to the general election. They are concerned about the daunting challenge of a divided house among the leading opposition parties.  The coalition includes prominent figures like Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, Nasir El Rufai, and Rotimi Amaechi. Other notable members are Abubakar Malami, Liyel Imoke, and Rauf Aregbesola. Additionally, Babachir Lawal, Rabiu Kwankwaso, and Aminu Tambuwal are part of it. It seems that vestiges of PDP, LP, APC, SDP, NNPP, ADC, etc, show in the proposed coalition. 

Although coalition is not strange to Nigerian politics, the outcome of these current forces is uncertain. It remains to be seen how they will harness their power into a collective unit. They need to present a strong candidate. This must be done amidst utter egos. Some leading members of the coalition have a desire to be president. Atiku, El Rufai, Obi, Kwankwaso, and Amaechi all view themselves as individuals who can be president.

The merger that gave birth to APC was realised. The key players knew the importance of a strong candidate. Muhammadu Buhari had individual 12 million votes. He was the person to rally around for APC to have any chance of winning the 2015 presidential election. The coalition subsumed interest and put their best foot ahead.

The campaign for the south to retain the presidency in 2027 is very intense. The choice of Atiku Abubakar as the presidential candidate of the coalition seems to be untenable. Atiku has realized this clearly enough with the outcome of the 2023 presidential election. But why is Atiku still at the forefront of the coalition? It will be more dangerous for the ruling party if Atiku does not contest the 2027 presidential election.

An Atiku candidacy in 2027 will be a walk in the park for the APC. They want it. However, Atiku seems aware of this. He has chosen a much more dangerous path than the coalition’s organiser. Atiku, with his financial war chest, would take the front seat in producing the next president, a possible Obi/Kwankwaso ticket. Atiku is politically sound. He knows that despite the numerous defections observed ahead of 2027, there are traditionally PDP strongholds. In these areas, he can attempt to produce state governors against the run of play.

Atiku will not run in 2027. He is focused on producing the next president and supporting several PDP candidates to emerge as governors in 2027. The Waziri Adamawa would become the next mecca for political power in Nigeria. Atiku will become a potent force and rallying point where those who want to be president of Nigeria must consult.

Atiku knows that for power to smoothly return to the north in 2031, the north must play a critical role. They must support a trusted southern candidate. This candidate should emerge in 2027 and will commit to a single term. Peter Obi’s lack of desperation for power makes him suit this bill. The day Atiku announces that he won’t run in 2027, he will declare his support for his preferred southern candidate. That day is when the deep-rooted cracks and intimidation in the APC will begin to manifest.

Let the rhetoric of the dismal coalition by the APC not deceive you. Even the APC knew how the PDP dismissed them in 2014. Some elements championed PDP’s arrogance in 2014. They are now leading forces in the current APC. The same way they told Goodluck Jonathan that he was the “alpha and omega” and only solution for Nigeria. Today, they have begun to beat the drum for Tinubu.

They have conferred on Tinubu an invincibility status and the greatest political strategist Nigeria has ever produced.

Transformations Ambassadors of Nigeria, TAN, had all the resources available to her. They also had the power of incumbency. Even with these advantages, TAN failed in 2015 to reelect a sitting president. Many Nigerians desperately needed a change at that time. Thus, the APC is living in self-deceit and denial.